http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID45408
Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy) (Articolo in rivista)
- Type
- Label
- Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy) (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
- Anno
- 2011-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
- Alternative label
Avolio E. , Orlandi F. , Bellecci C., Fornaciari M, Federico S. (2011)
Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)
in Theoretical and applied climatology
(literal)
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- Avolio E. , Orlandi F. , Bellecci C., Fornaciari M, Federico S. (literal)
- Rivista
- Note
- ISI Web of Science (WOS) (literal)
- Titolo
- Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy) (literal)
- Abstract
- Abstract In phenological studies, plant development and
its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered
in order to investigate the influence of climatic
changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this
work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the
olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has
been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant
species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time,
Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this
area, both geographically and climatically. The work is
divided into two main research activities. First, the
behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of
temperature on phenological phases of this crop are
investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine
the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data
collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study
period (19992009). Second, the study of climate change in
Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is
performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis
derived from general circulation models for two representative
climatic periods (19812000 and 20812100); the A2
IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The
final part of this work is the integration of the results of the
two research activities to predict the olive flowering
variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement
with our previous works, we found a significant correlation
between the phenological phases and temperature. For the
twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in
Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each
degree of temperature rise. From phenological model
results, on the basis of future climate predictions over
Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering
between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the
area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and
mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments
about biological and environmental changes. (literal)
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