TiPES - Tipping Points in the Earth System (DTA.AD001.282)

Thematic area

Earth system science and environmental technologies

Project area

Structure responsible for the research project

Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate (ISAC)

Project manager

SUSANNA CORTI
Phone number: +39 051 639 9603
Email: s.corti@isac.cnr.it

Abstract

There is rising concern that several subsystems of the Earth may respond highly nonlinearly at critical future levels of anthropogenic forcing; these levels have recently been associated with tipping points (TPs). It is paramount to identify safe operating spaces for humanity and the planet in terms of these critical forcing levels, in order to prevent harmful transitions to alternative, undesirable states of the Earth system. The mechanisms leading to such abrupt transitions are only partly understood, and further research in this regard is urgently needed. State-of-art Earth System Models appear to respond too smoothly at TPs and have difficulties in simulating abrupt transitions that occurred in the planet's history. TiPES will address these problems from several angles: 1. The project will identify subsystems that may exhibit abrupt transitions, and couplings between them, by focussing on paleoclimatic records and abrupt transitions therein. Novel methods to detect Early Warning Signals of forthcoming TPs, and to make skilful predictions on their basis, will be developed. 2. The potential shortcomings of models in representing TPs will be evaluated.

Start date of activity

01/09/2019

Keywords

earth, system, tipping points

Last update: 25/11/2024