In the literature methods exist which allow to reach consensus on the solution of complex problems within a group of experts/advocates who never meet during the process and do not know the other members of the group. One of these methods is the Delphi method. The Delphi technique has nothing to do with the oracle: it is research method particularly suitable to allow experts, working independently, to act as a whole while dealing with complex problems, increasing the communication inside a group (panel) and limiting the influencing power of each participant.
The Delphi panelists are stimulated to put forward their ideas suitable to solve a given problem and these ideas are diffused among the panelists, who thus have the possibility to review their individual positions without having to defend them in front of the whole group. The process continues until consensus is reached. It is therefore possible to reach consensus on one or more solutions to the given problem avoiding the effect of the most influential persons on the others.
IRPPS has created a new method which integrates the Delphi technique and the appreciative inquiry. The objective is to shape future population scenarios in terms of social policies adequate to sustain current population trends. In particular, we consider three population trends: ageing, family and fertility and gender roles. The method consists of four rounds of interviews each one with specific features. In each one of the four rounds in order to correlate the views and information pertaining the three topics and for allowing the respondents to react to and assess differing viewpoints we will simultaneously consider:
· Population trends: panellists are asked to design future population trends on the basis of historical trends, their knowledge, perceptions and intuitions. Trends are submitted to panellists attention in a graphic format (i.e. historical curves of population from 1980 up to date).
· Population Policy Objectives: panellists are asked to select a variable number of policy objectives depending on the round in the field of population, given a thirty year time-frame and to list up to three key success factors for each selected policy objective.
· Controversial Policy Issues: panellists are asked to express their views, comments and highlight the effects deriving from the adoption, erase or the lack of the controversial policy issues proposed in the list.
Between each one of the first three rounds data are analysed and synthesised in a summary to be resubmitted to panellists in the next round in order to obtain their inputs, comments and criticism.
The result is one or more socio-demographic scenarios on which panelists reached consensus and the associated level of desirability and feasibility. The new method has been successfully applied in 15 European countries in the framework of a EU funded project and it will be carried on in three Latin American countries with UN and Italian Cooperation to Development funds.
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